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The reality is if Jeep doesn't step up to the plate and put a real engine in the wrangler they will lose market share after the first couple of years (starting in 2009). It's selling now because it's new and it's cool; but the engine really sucks. I have owned ten Jeeps (and still have four; 2 TJ's, 1 CJ, 1 WK). I am looking at the 4-door JK, but that 3.8L pushrod v6 really turns my stomach. I'm not saying the H4 will appeal to Jeep buyers but Jeep sales are up because of new people buying the 4-door wrangler that were not previous Jeep fans. Those same (non-)Jeep fans will turn to the H4 (or something like it; convertible FJ; new Ford Bronco) if it has better power.

So is it the schools?, fresh young designers, same tired designs.

No I don't think the HX has much of a chance of eating into the Wrangler sales.
As others have said before, although the Hummer H1 was a serious Off-Road machine, it was priced in an entirely different market than the Jeep. It was legendary, but entirely different from it's watered down Chevy based children.
It's more for the bling crowd, than the real outdoorsy folks.
I did read somewhere tho that Jeep Wranglers had an interesting percentage of buyers who were college girls. I could see them switching over saying "Daddy, can I get a Hummer?"
Oh yeah - I could see old Dad being real happy to hear his daughter say hummer.

Aiming for the Wrangler? P'leez. I think not.

While the original Hummer (like its Humvee brother) is an off-road vehicle, Humm & Hummer & Hummerer (H2, H3, & H4) are all just glorified bling machines (think those 35" rims might come chrome dipped like the HUMMER sign at the dealerships?) that could potentially do something off-road in the right hands. But they're essentially just a street cruisers.

And while there's arguably brand loyalty among Cadillac buyers, there's no loyalty to the Hummer brand. They do have a mild following because it's one of the biggest, loudest, shiny expensive toys you can get your grubby little mitts on (and it falls into a tax write-off loophole because of the weight). Once it's no longer a showpiece for how much money you have (you don't get street cred for buying something anyone can afford) it loses its appeal. Buyer behavior 101.

Wranglers need not worry, although it does bear more than a passing similarity to the FJ Cruiser. Incidentally, they could build that Renegade concept as a H4 killer...

Sales figures of HUMMER vs. JEEP:

CYTD (Thru 3 qtrs MY07):
All HUMMERS............45,084
WRANGLER only........92,549
All JEEP..................363,669

Estimated MY07 Wrangler sales 110,000+ --limited only by how fast JEEP can catch up on their backlog on factory orders (up to 8 months for 4-door Rubicons).

So, with an introduction as scary as the H4 (due in 2010, if all the stars and planets align) I can see how JEEP should be shaking in their boots. Puh-leeez!

Well, it's good to know if the Wrangler factory backlog keeps up thru 2010, JEEP could always outsource the idled HUMMER assembly lines to help catch up.

GM continues to pray for "brand loyalty", but the reality is the LACK OF brand loyalty has put them in a downward market share slide, for decades, with no bottom in site. Unfortunately, Toyota has built many U.S. plants with money from former GM owners. Way too early to say if HUMMER owners will buck that trend, and even if they do, their numbers look relatively small.

They will only sell a bizillion or two. We like Jeeps because we like Jeeps. There are people who will buy it because it says "Hummer" on the side that will never give Jeep a sniff.
Brand loyalty is not exclusive to Jeep. Logic need not apply (or Jeep woulda' been gone a long time ago).

GM has rumored an H4 for many years, even way back when the H2 was first envisioned. Instead of introducing a series of models simultaneously (H2,H2T,H3,H3T,H4) the Hummer line has only been creeping up on the successively smaller verisons. GM knows competing with Wrangler will be a tall task, and they don't seem eager to take it on. That's one of the few smart decisions they've made.

When GM built the H2, they also raised the "real" Hummer (now called H1) prices to the moon ($100K range). The obvious happened: H2 sales cannibalized nearly ALL of the H1 sales, and the H1 had to be dropped. Not learning from their mistake (so what's new?) GM produced the H3... and guess what happened? Would-be H2 buyers flocked to H3's, though the H3 has been mildly successful (starting price ~$29.9K)

So, as you can imagine, Pavlov is rolling over in his grave as GM considers an H4, which will surely cannibalize H3 sales... The interesting variant I'm waiting for is the H3T, which is rumored to be a 4-seater with a small pick-up bed (a small H2T, aka H2-SUT). They will likely offer the same base 5-spd stick, L5 engine (242HP) set-up and probably the "Alpha" version with a small V8, but no stick.

Other rumors have the H4 as a Trailblazer replacement, and/or as a serious off-road dune-buggy type design, ready for your driveway by 2010. With the CAFE lunatics eyeing 35MPG across the board a more recent prediction is, if GM does come up with an H4, it will be more of a cute ute, with a 4-banger Ecotec and be over-priced for the segment --starting at ~$24K. It will probably be Grocery-Rated, not Trail-Rated! Chances are, the Patriot will kick its ass!

Worry not, Wrangler!

P.S. --So far, the OEMs zeal for E85 is a farce. It has much more to do with scavenging CAFE credits (and garnering political favor) than trying to save the consumer money or the futile effort of reversing the current climatic trend of global warming. Lord knows, most of us can't find E85 anywhere in our states and if we could, it costs as much or more to burn --especially considering the LOWER MPGs. Such a deal! And I'm tired of paying more for tortillas!