Much of the downsizing, analysts believe, will come at plants that make truck-based products, victims of the change in consumer tastes from sport utility vehicles and trucks to more fuel efficient car-based vehicles.

Atop almost all of the analysts' lists of plants likely to be closed is the 2,100-worker factory in Newark, Del., that assembles the slow-selling Dodge Durango and Chrysler Aspen midsize SUVs.

Analysts say the Mack Avenue Engine Plant 1 in Detroit, with about 530 employees, also is a possibility because it makes the 4.7-liter V-8 engines that go in slow-selling trucks. And a 2,330-worker plant near St. Louis that makes Ram pickups also is on many lists because Chrysler has two other plants that make the Ram. Shifts also could be cut at other plants.